

==============================================================================================
PART 1 — the exact calculation: $100 swap, 5% rate move, 40/30/30 split.
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  $100 covenant swap (oracle mid, NO market spread). Rate moves 5.000% adversely.
  Total FX drift on the position = $100 × 5.000% = $5.00.  Split 40/30/30:

    DESK      bears 40% = $2.00   (0.200% of the $1000 pool — mostly paper, bounded)
    SWAPPER   bears 30% = $1.50   = 1.500% of their $100 swap  <-- the swapper's fee
    WITHDRAWERS bear 30% = $1.50  spread across 90% base ($900)
              => withdrawal fee = 0.167%  = $0.1667 on a $100 withdrawal

  ANSWER:
   • Swapper's loss/fee : $1.50 (1.500%) — and ONLY in a 5% adverse move; ~0 normally.
   • Withdrawer's loss  : 0.167% of their withdrawal ($0.1667 per $100) — "just a withdrawal fee".
   • Desk's cost        : $2.00 (0.200% of pool) — and usually paper, not realized (report-6).

  Note: the withdrawer need not know the fee's origin (FX rebalancing) — it is simply a small,
  bounded withdrawal fee, socialized across the large stable base exactly like any payment network.


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PART 2 — sensitivity: the fees stay small even in big moves (band caps exposure).
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         rate move     drift on $100       swapper fee    withdrawer fee    desk % of pool
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
            1.000%             $1.00            0.300%            0.033%            0.040%
            5.000%             $5.00            1.500%            0.167%            0.200%
           10.000%            $10.00            3.000%            0.333%            0.400%
           20.000%            $20.00            6.000%            0.667%            0.800%

  Even a 20% FX crash (the full 2022 parity move) → swapper 6%, withdrawer 0.67%, desk 0.8% of pool.
  And these are the TAIL. In the normal two-way regime the drift is ~0, so all three fees are ~0.


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PART 3 — the migration thesis: BCH fees vs the alternatives (a $100 cross-currency move).
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  Ethereum USDC→EURC (DEX)      gas ~$3–20  +  DEX 0.1–0.3%  +  slippage    ~3%–20%+ on $100
  Bank / card FX                FX markup 1–3%  +  fixed fees               ~2%–4%
  Wire / remittance             flat $15–40  +  1–2% FX                     ~15%+ on $100
  CEX (deposit→trade→withdraw)  trade 0.1%  +  withdraw $1–25 + KYC         ~1%–25%
  ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  BCH Anthemus — NORMAL         swap ~0%  +  withdraw ~0%  +  tx <$0.001    ≈ $0.00
  BCH Anthemus — 5% STRESS      swapper 1.5%  +  withdraw 0.167%  +  tx <$0.001~$1.67 all-in
  BCH Anthemus — 20% CRASH      swapper 6%  +  withdraw 0.67%  +  tx <$0.001~$6.67 all-in

  => For SMALL/MEDIUM payments the Ethereum GAS ALONE ($3–20) often exceeds our entire STRESS-case
     all-in fee. On BCH the base tx is <$0.001, and even the tail risk-share fee undercuts a bank.
     In the normal regime the cost is effectively zero. There is no cheaper cross-currency rail.


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PART 4 — why 40/30/30 is a genuine balance, and the "stay, don't leave" flywheel.
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 THE BALANCE (why sharing beats concentrating):
  • Desk 40% — small enough that the desk's worst exposure = 40% × band(10%) × maxMove(20%) = 0.8% of
    the reserve. Trivial capital; the desk can offer a NEAR-HARD peg without a big buffer or premium.
  • Swapper 30% — partial "polluter pays": the user who created the position bears some of its drift,
    which aligns incentives and needs only a tiny buffer (30% of a few-% drift). Not full de-risking,
    but for a payments user who just wants to spend, retaining a sliver of FX is a non-issue.
  • Withdrawer 30% — socialized as a tiny withdrawal fee across the 90% base. Universal in payments;
    the user need not know its origin. Bounded by the band; ~0 in the normal regime.
  No single party carries a dangerous share; the peg is "effectively hard" (worst withdrawer haircut
  ~0.17% at 5%, ~0.67% at 20%) — smaller than any competitor's baseline fee.

 THE REFRAME (you are right): "hard vs soft peg" is the wrong axis for a PAYMENTS product. Every
  payment network charges fees — often 2–3%. A peg that costs a BOUNDED, TRANSPARENT, sub-1% fee only
  in a stress tail is not "soft" in any way a user cares about; it is simply the cheapest withdrawal
  fee they will find. Call it a withdrawal fee, disclose the cap, move on.

 THE FLYWHEEL — migrate IN, and STAY:
  • One uniform rail for 100+ fragmented stablecoins (USDT/USDC/EURC/… across Tron/ETH/BSC/Sol),
    all tradeable against each other on a chain with <$0.001 fees and offline-receivable settlement.
  • Leaving (withdrawing to a home chain) costs the small risk-share fee + that chain's gas; STAYING
    costs ~nothing and unlocks the whole hub (spend, swap, receive, the DEX, the ecosystem).
  • So the fee structure itself is a GRAVITY WELL: the rational move is to bring value ONTO BCH and
    keep it there, because every capability lives here and every exit pays the foreign chain's toll.
    The 90%-stays-on-chain assumption (report-6) is not just an accounting fact — it is the product's
    core incentive, and the risk-share fees are calibrated to reinforce it.

 HONEST CAVEATS: the swapper/withdrawer shares are VARIABLE (state-dependent), unlike a fixed payment
  fee — bounded + on-chain-transparent, but not constant; disclose the cap. The swapper retains 30% of
  FX direction (fine for payments, not for a hedger). Fee benchmarks are illustrative 2026 orders of
  magnitude. Real path stress numbers from the 2021-23 sims; directional, not a forecast.

